A National Statistics Publication for Scotland

PRISON POPULATION PROJECTIONS, SCOTLAND, 2007-2008 to 2016-2017

The latest set of prison population projections, prepared in October 2007, show that the average daily prison population (excluding prisoners on home detention curfew) is projected to increase to 8,500 in 2016-2017. These projections take into account recent trends in the prison population, including final data for 2006 and the latest available data for the first 8 months of 2007.

The prison population in the first 8 months of 2007 has been higher than anticipated and this is reflected in the latest set of prison population projections, which project higher increases in the future population than the September 2006 projections. The current high prison population and the higher projected prison population is due to the increase in the average daily population of prisoners on remand (1,567 in 2006-2007 compared to 1,242 in 2005-2006).       

The 2006-2007 average daily prison population which was projected to increase to 7,100 (rounded to nearest 100) reached 7,183.  However, if early release on home detention curfew had not been introduced in July 2006, the 2006-2007 average daily prison population would have been higher.

Low risk prisoners sentenced to less than four years are eligible for release early from their sentences on Home Detention Curfew (HDC) where they are monitored by an electronic tag, have restrictions placed on their movements and can be returned to custody if the breach the conditions of their HDC. The average daily population of prisoners on HDC increased from 92 in July 2006 to 287 in November 2006 and has remained approximately 300 since then. If HDC had not been available then these prisoners would have been accommodated within prison.

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